Back-testing

do the models track reality?
Records
13
pass9
review3
fail0
SR 26-2 ongoing
insurance
40%
models w/ record15
covered6
tier-1 back-test coverage

Records

13 back-tests vs. independent benchmarks
id status test engine
BT-001 pass Track C crosscheck: FinView vs Gold Copy bond pricing
All 6 instruments within tolerance. Largest deviation on HY Corp 7Y (0.04% clean price).
finview.L1.bond_pricer
BT-002 pass Track C crosscheck: duration and convexity
Duration and convexity consistent across implementations.
finview.L1.bond_pricer
BT-003 pass CECL scenario differentiation: base vs stress ECL
Stress ECL 2.17x base ECL. Rating migration increases PD non-linearly, producing >2x uplift for 2x PD shock.
finview.L3.cecl_calculator
BT-004 pass CECL recovery rate sensitivity
ECL responds proportionally to LGD changes (elasticity 0.95, expected ~1.0).
finview.L3.cecl_calculator
BT-005 pass CECL severely adverse scenario (DFAST)
4.24x uplift under severely adverse. Consistent with crisis-level default experience.
finview.L3.cecl_calculator
BT-006 pass Stress engine: parallel rate shock consistency
MV change within 3bps of analytical estimate including convexity correction.
finview.L2.stress_engine
BT-007 pass Stress engine: DFAST scenario ordering
Scenario ordering confirmed: baseline (-0.8%) < adverse (-3.2%) < severely adverse (-7.1%).
finview.L2.stress_engine
BT-008 pass Stress engine: credit spread shock
Spread shock MV impact within 7bps of analytical estimate.
finview.L2.stress_engine
BT-009 review Stress engine: combined scenario additivity
8.3% deviation from additivity. Within tolerance but flagged for review — cross-gamma effects from rate-spread correlation may warrant monitoring.
finview.L2.stress_engine
BT-010 review Firm balance-sheet tracking vs reported filings (13-firm fleet)
Asset-side balance sheet reconciles to filings (total assets, separate account 13/13). invested_assets + investment_income miss for AFL/APO/JXN — the same consolidated-NCI /...
insmodel.L4.asset_engine
BT-011 superseded Aggregate policy-reserves tracking vs reported filings (13-firm fleet)
SUPERSEDED BY BT-012 (2026-06-04). This was an HONEST RESULT, NOT A PRODUCTION-ENGINE VERDICT: the e2e crosscheck assembled product reserves from MockDataProvider (notional —...
insmodel.L4.reserve_engine_stat
BT-012 pass Firm-calibrated reserve reconciliation by reportable segment (L&A vertical)
RESOLVES BT-011 ROOT CAUSE. With firm-calibrated books the reserve aggregate reconciles to filings (6/8 segment-grade firms within 10%: APO/CRBG/GL/JXN/LNC/UNM; PFG ~88% and...
insmodel.L4.reserve_engine_stat
BT-013 review Reserve roll-forward vs persistence baseline (predictive, QUARTERLY cadence)
QUARTERLY CADENCE (corrected from an initial annual-only read). Persistence is an even tighter baseline at quarterly frequency (~3.4% pooled q/q MAE vs ~11% annual) — the...
insmodel.L4.reserve_engine_stat

Tier-1 coverage

15 models · every material model has a documented record
model vertical record status note
M-001 insurance BT-012 covered firm-calibrated reserve book reconciles by reportable segment (8 firms segment-grade, 6/8 within 10%) — supersedes BT-011 Mock 0%; θ-responsive roll-forward...
M-002 insurance BT-012 covered as M-001
M-003 insurance BT-012 covered as M-001
M-004 insurance BT-012 review adequacy builds on the firm-calibrated reserve book (BT-012); firm-calibrated AAT back-test pending
M-005 insurance BT-012 review as M-004
M-020 insurance BT-012 covered GAAP reserve cohort firm-calibrated from canonical segment mix (BT-012); supersedes BT-011
M-021 insurance BT-012 covered as M-020
M-040 insurance BT-005 covered bond ECL back-tested under the FinView cecl_calculator records (BT-005..007)
M-050 insurance BT-010 review asset base tracks (BT-010); RBC-ratio-vs-reported back-test method-pending
M-051 insurance method-pending stress/solvency projection — back-test method (vs disclosed sensitivities) to be defined
M-052 insurance method-pending no filing-level benchmark; internal-limit signal, not a reserves/asset field
M-053 insurance method-pending as M-052
M-070 insurance method-pending pricing — premium_revenue not emitted at firm level by the crosscheck; pricing back-test method TBD
M-071 insurance method-pending as M-070
M-072 insurance method-pending as M-070