Value

theta = 3.5-4.0% (post-2022 regime); GOES calibrates to historical UST-10Y

sourceGOES economic scenario generator calibration
derivationdata_calibrated
qualitycalibrated
regulatory frameworksNAIC VM-20
set2026-05-25
last reviewed2026-05-25
next review due2026-12-31

Notes

Pre-2022 calibrations used 2.5-3.0%; updated post-rate-cycle reset. Drives 30Y stress scenario terminal state.